HOUSING STARTS & NEW-HOME SALES

Single-family permits and construction starts continued to be down on a year-to-date basis, as the housing market remained impacted by elevated mortgage rates, challenging affordability conditions and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to the National Association of Home Builders, which is forecasting that 2025 will end with a decline in single-family housing starts. New-home sales year to date are about 3% lower in 2025, said the Washington, DC-based NAHB. “As a result of slowing home sales, inventory continues to rise,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, adding that builders will be “pulling back” on construction in the months ahead due to current levels of inventory.

Market Analysis: JCHS Report Cites ‘Uncertainty’ in U.S. Housing Market

CAMBRIDGE, MA — The nation’s housing market is “shrouded in uncertainty,” with elevated home prices and interest rates pushing sales to their lowest level in 30 years amid little indication that record-high levels of unaffordability will ease anytime soon, housing analysts said in June. KEEP READING

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HOUSING STARTS & NEW-HOME SALES

Builder confidence fell sharply in May amid growing uncertainties stemming from elevated interest rates, tariff concerns and a cloudy economic outlook – although positive news on the tariff front “should provide a boost to housing demand,” the National Association of Home Builders said. “The spring homebuying season has gotten off to a slow start as persistent elevated interest rates, policy uncertainty and building material cost factors hurt builder sentiment,” said Buddy Hughes, chairman of the Washington, DC-based NAHB. “However, builders expect that future trade negotiations and progress on tax policy will help strengthen housing demand.” Policy uncertainty stemming in large part from tariff issues has blunted builder confidence, said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, adding that, as of May, a majority of home builders were using incentives to facilitate sales due to lackluster demand.

EXISTING-HOME SALES

Sales of existing homes have been at 75% of normal, pre-pandemic activity for the past three years, even with seven million jobs added to the economy, according to the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, who noted that pent-up housing demand “continues to grow, though it’s not being realized.” Any meaningful decline in mortgage rates “will help release this demand,” said Lawrence Yun of the Washington, DC-based NAR. “At this stage of the housing market, it’s all about mortgage rates,” Yun noted. “Lower mortgage rates are essential to bring home buyers back into the market.”

RESIDENTIAL REMODELING

The nation’s aging housing stock combined with insufficient new-home inventory points to future growth for the remodeling market, according to a report from the National Association of Home Builders. Recent data, said the NAHB, indicates that nearly half of U.S. owner-occupied homes were built before 1980 and have climbed to a median age of 41 years. Despite current economic uncertainty, the NAHB is forecasting residential remodeling activity to post a 5% gain in 2025, followed by a 3% increase in 2026.

CABINET & VANITY SALES

Sales of kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities declined in April compared to the same month in 2024, the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association reported. According to the KCMA’s latest monthly “Trend of Business Survey,” participating manufacturers reported that overall cabinet and vanity sales in April were down 9.3% from the same month a year earlier. Declines were reported for stock cabinets (-20.8%), as well as for semi-custom (-3.9%) and custom units (-11.8%), the KCMA reported. Year-to-date sales through April were down 6% compared to the same four-month period a year earlier.

MAJOR HOME APPLIANCE SHIPMENTS

U.S. shipments of major home appliances rose in the first quarter compared to the same three-month period in 2024, the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers reported. According to AHAM’s latest figures, appliance shipments from January through March totaled 20.2 million units, up 2.6% from the 19.7 million units shipped in the first quarter last year. Gains were led by an increase in shipments of cooking (+9.6%) and home laundry (+3.3%) products. In contrast, shipments of refrigeration (-3.4%) and kitchen-cleanup products (-1.5%) were down from the same period last year.

Market Analysis: Uncertainty Mounting Among Homeowners, Survey Finds

INDIANAPOLIS, IN — In a shifting economic landscape, U.S. homeowners are increasingly feeling the financial pinch, reassessing their remodeling priorities and finding new ways to get the most from their current homes, according to a report by home-services website Angi, Inc. KEEP READING

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A five-point decline in the NAHB’s latest Remodeling Market Index (RMI) “likely reflects consumer uncertainty, fueled by rising costs and tariff concerns,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz (see related graph above).

“Although almost all the data for the first quarter RMI were collected before the release of specific reciprocal tariffs, the debate and uncertainty over tariffs has had an effect on consumer confidence,” Dietz observed.

Remodelers responding to the latest RMI survey reported that their suppliers have already increased prices by an average of 6.9% since January due to the anticipated effect of tariffs, the Washington, DC-based NAHB reported.

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Housing Starts & New Home Sales

The recent decline in housing starts “is a clear signal” that affordability pressures due to elevated interest rates, rising construction costs and labor shortages are intensifying, housing analysts said last month. “Elevated mortgage rates and rising construction costs are making it increasingly difficult to deliver homes at price points accessible to entry-level buyers,” said Buddy Hughes, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders. “Without policy support, addressing the affordability crisis remains an uphill battle.” When asked about the impact of tariffs on their business, 60% of builders reported in April that their suppliers have already increased or announced increases of material prices. On average, suppliers have increased their prices by 6.3% in response to announced, enacted or expected tariffs, according to the NAHB. Builders estimate a typical cost effect from recent tariff actions at $10,900 per home, the trade association added.

Existing-Home Sales

Existing-home sales remain sluggish due to affordability challenges tied to elevated high mortgage rates, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors reported last month. According to Lawrence Yun of the Washington, DC-based NAR, current market conditions signal “the troublesome possibility of less economic mobility for society.” According to the latest NAR forecast, mortgage rates will average 6.4% in 2025, declining slightly to 6.1% in 2026. The trade association said it expects existing-home sales to rise 6% this year, and accelerate another 11% in 2026. “Home-price growth will moderate due to more supply coming onto the market,” Yun predicted. “A meaningful decline in mortgage rates would help both demand and supply – demand by boosting affordability, and supply by lessening the power of the mortgage rate lock-in effect,” he added. “We expect mortgage rates to slide moderately lower, but the high national debt will prevent rates from falling drastically.”

Residential Remodeling

Annual expenditures for improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes are expected to grow modestly through 2026, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, released in April by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The LIRA projects that year-over-year spending for home renovation and repair will increase 2.5% this year, reaching a record $526 billion by the first quarter of 2026. “Recent increases in the sales of existing homes are expected to drive slow but steady growth in home remodeling and repair,” said Carlos Martín, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Cambridge, MA-based Joint Center. “High home values and other strong economic indicators have supported an uptick in homeowner improvement spending. However, economic volatility due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and falling consumer confidence could well dampen expected growth.”

Cabinet & Vanity Sales

Sales of kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities declined in March compared to the same month in 2024, the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association reported. According to the KCMA’s latest monthly “Trend of Business Survey,” participating manufacturers reported that overall cabinet and vanity sales in March were down 4.0% from the same month a year earlier. Sales declines were reported for stock cabinets (-20.9%), as well as for semi-
custom (-0.5%) and custom units (-0.5%), the KCMA reported. Year-to-date sales through March were down 4.9% compared to the same three-month period a year earlier, the Reston, VA-based KCMA added.

Market Analysis | Report Reflects Consumer Uncertainty, Fueled by Rising Costs

WASHINGTON, DC — Rising homeowner equity and limited opportunities to move into other homes continues to bolster the home-improvement market and keep remodelers’ sentiments positive, although sentiment “is not quite as positive” as it was the previous quarter, “as some remodelers are reporting that uncertainty about tariffs and the direction of the economy are making customers hesitant to spend on larger projects,” according to a new report from the National Association of Homebuilders. KEEP READING

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Housing Starts & New Home Sales

High construction costs, elevated mortgage rates and challenging housing affordability conditions are causing home builders “to approach the market with caution,” the National Association of Home Builders said last month. “The single-family home-building market is facing competing concerns and opportunities,” commented Robert Dietz, chief economist for the Washington, DC-based NAHB. “Given persistent affordability concerns, reducing inefficient regulatory costs would offer the best policy path to improve attainable housing supply and bring down shelter inflation.” Constrained housing affordability conditions due largely to ongoing, elevated interest rates have led to a recent reduction in single-family production, the NAHB reported. “Upside and downside risks will become clearer as the new year progresses,” Dietz predicted. “An easing regulatory environment and tax cuts could act as tailwinds, but tariffs and potentially higher deficits could dampen market momentum.” 

Existing-Home Sales

Elevated home prices and high mortgage rates continue to strain affordability and impact the sales of existing homes, the National Association of Realtors reported. Housing affordability “suffered” according to the latest available statistics, as mortgage rates remained in the 7% range, the Washington, DC-based NAR said. Compared to a year ago, the monthly mortgage payment on a $300,000 home increased to $1,590, the Washington, DC-based trade organization said. At the same time, pending home sales pulled back, while year-over-year contract signings lowered in all four U.S. regions, the NAR reported. “It’s unclear if the coldest January in 25 years contributed to fewer buyers, and if so, expect greater sales activity in upcoming months,” the trade association added.

Residential Remodeling

Home professionals are approaching 2025 “with renewed confidence” after a year marked by revenue and profitability declines, according to a forecast by Houzz Inc., the Palo Alto, CA-based online platform for home remodeling and design. Houzz’s annual forecast, released in February, noted that more than 3 in 5 firms in the nation’s residential construction and design sectors are projecting a positive business outlook this year. In 2024, businesses across all key industry groups reported the biggest year-over-year decline in average annual revenue growth since 2014, said Houzz, which attributed missed revenue targets to declines in both the number and the size of projects. Labor shortages will continue to be a “persistent challenge,” while expectations for rising labor costs are also widespread, Houzz noted. While the availability of products and materials is expected to remain largely unchanged, more companies surveyed anticipate costs to rise in 2025 than those that expect costs to decline, Houzz added.

Harvard Report: U.S. Remodeling Still Above Pre-COVID Levels

Spending in the U.S. residential remodeling market reached unprecedented heights in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, soaring above $600 billion for the first time in 2022. And despite modest declines the past two years, market expenditures for improvements and repairs to owner-occupied and rental properties is expected to remain “far above” pre-pandemic levels in 2025. KEEP READING

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Housing Starts & New Home Sales

A limited amount of existing inventory coupled with solid demand helped new-home sales end 2024 on a positive note, even as buyers continue to grapple with affordability challenges, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Builders are “cautiously optimistic” about the new-construction market for 2025, “given ongoing solid macroeconomic conditions, particularly for the labor market, as well as a post-election policy reset that seeks to eliminate unnecessary regulations,” the Washington, DC-based NAHB said. New single-family home inventory – an 8.5 months’ supply at the current building pace – is up about 10% compared to a year earlier, according to the latest available statistics. Completed ready-to-occupy inventory is up 46% compared to a year ago, said the NAHB, which estimated that the combined new and existing-home supply is currently at a four-months’ level, the lowest since April of 2024. The market has not been near a six-months’ supply since 2012.

Residential Remodeling

“Strong” results in the fourth quarter of 2024 are fueling optimism among businesses across the nation’s residential construction, architecture and design sectors, according to a report from Houzz Inc., the Palo Alto, CA-based online platform for home remodeling and design.The Q1 2025 “Houzz U.S. Renovation Barometer,” released in recent weeks, found that expectations among design and construction professionals are at their highest level since the third quarter of 2022, said Houzz.“Strong Q4 performance and recent federal interest rate cuts have bolstered confidence among industry professionals,” said Marine Sargsyan, staff economist for Houzz. “With this solid foundation, construction firms are expressing the most positive sentiment we’ve seen in two and a half years.”

Cabinet & Vanity Sales

Sales of kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, impacted by elements such as inflationary pressures, sluggish home sales and other industry headwinds, declined in 2024 compared to a year earlier, the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association reported. According to the KCMA’s latest monthly “Trend of Business Survey,” participating manufacturers reported that overall cabinet and vanity sales as documented in 2024 were down 3.4% from the same 12-month period in 2023. Annual declines were reported for stock cabinets (-12.1%), as well as for semi-custom (-5.4%) and custom units (-15.6%), the Reston, VA-based KCMA reported.

Market Analysis: ‘Cautious’ Homeowners Seen Focused Only on Essentials

CHICAGO, IL — Elevated materials, labor and borrowing costs, along with lingering economic uncertainty, continue to constrain large-scale remodeling projects, with “cautious” homeowners focusing on essential repairs and targeted upgrades rather than on large discretionary remodels. KEEP READING

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Housing Starts & New Home Sales

Builder sentiment is holding steady as high home prices and elevated mortgage rates offset renewed hope about an improved regulatory business climate this year, the National Association of Home Builders reported. “While builders are expressing concerns that high interest rates, elevated construction costs and a lack of buildable lots continue to act as headwinds, they’re also anticipating future regulatory relief,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris. The NAHB is forecasting additional interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, but with inflation pressures still present, the association has reduced its forecast from 100 basis points to 75 basis points for the federal funds rate. “Concerns over inflation risks will keep long-term interest rates near current levels, with mortgage rates remaining above 6%,” noted NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. The NAHB is forecasting single-family starts to post only a slight increase in 2025, Dietz added.

Residential Remodeling

After two years of decline, annual expenditures for improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes are expected to grow at a mild pace throughout 2025, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA), released in January by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The LIRA projects that year-over-year spending for home renovation and repair will increase by 1.2% in 2025. While remodeling expenditures are expected to grow only modestly in 2025, analysts have increased their projection for the market’s size by $30 billion, or 6.4%, to $509 billion. “A solid labor market, rising home values, and continued improvement in existing-home sales are supporting greater activity in home remodeling,” said Carlos Martín, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center. 

Major Home Appliance Shipments

Domestic shipments of major home appliances gained ground in 2024 compared to the same 12-month period a year earlier, the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers reported. According to the latest figures, released in January by the Washington, DC-based AHAM, major home appliance shipments totaled 76.2 million units from the time period of January through December of last year, up 2.6% from the 74.3 million units shipped in calendar year 2023. Shipment gains for 2024 were posted for refrigeration (+3.7%) and home laundry products (+2.2%). In contrast, shipments of kitchen cleanup (-2.1%) and cooking appliances (-2.1%) were both off from the previous year, AHAM said.

‘Worst’ of Housing Shortage Ending, Realtors Association Asserts

BOSTON — The worst of the housing inventory shortage is likely coming to an end, while mortgage rates have stabilized and job growth is continuing – all of which should result in steady increases in existing-home sales, according to a forecast by the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

After two years of sluggish home sales, existing-home sales are forecasted to rise to 4.47 million in 2025, and more than 5 million in 2026, said Lawrence Yun of the Washington, DC-based NAR, noting that household equity is also at record heights while job gains since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic have resulted in record-high payroll employment.

Yun said that he expects a slower growth rate in home prices during the next two years, because of additional housing supply reaching the market. He expects the Federal Reserve to maintain “a gradual approach” to easing monetary policy, offering relief to prospective buyers, and forecasts that mortgage rates will stabilize near 6% in 2025, “likely establishing a new normal.”

“Home buyers appear to have recalibrated expectations regarding mortgage rates and are taking advantage of more available inventory,” Yun said. “Buyers are no longer waiting for, or expecting, mortgage rates to fall substantially. Stable mortgage rates and continued income growth will pave the way for more Americans to achieve homeownership.” ▪

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Housing Starts and New-Home Sales

Home builder sentiment has markedly improved in the wake of the presidential election, amid forecasts calling for a gradual, if uneven, decline in mortgage rates, significant regulatory relief for the housing industry, and an increase for single-family construction in the coming months. But while builder confidence is improving, the industry “still faces many headwinds, such as an ongoing shortage of labor and buildable lots, along with elevated building material prices,” National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz said, adding that affordability conditions remain challenging. “Despite the beginning of the Fed’s easing cycle, many prospective home buyers remain on the sideline, waiting for lower interest rates,” Dietz observed. “We’re forecasting uneven declines for mortgage interest rates in the coming quarters, which will improve housing demand but place stress on building lot supplies due to tight lending conditions for development and construction loans.”

Existing-Home Sales

The worst of the housing inventory shortage is likely at an end, while mortgage rates are stabilizing and job growth is continuing – all of which should result in steady gains for existing-home sales, according to a 2025 forecast by the National Association of Realtors. “After two years of sluggish home sales, existing-home sales are forecasted to rise to 4.47 million in 2025, and more than 5 million in 2026,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR. Noting that household equity is also at record heights, while job gains since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic have led to record- high payroll employment, Yun projected a slower rate of growth in home prices during the next two years, due to additional housing supply reaching the market. He forecasted that the median existing-home price will rise to $410,700 in 2025, and to $420,000 in 2026, while the annual 30-year fixed mortgage rate will decline to 5.9% in 2025, but move higher in 2026. The housing market can expect six to eight more interest rate cuts, the economist said, predicting that “the new normal” for mortgage rates should be between 5.5% and 6%.

Residential Remodeling

The “holding pattern” for large, discretionary remodeling projects continued as 2024 wound to a close, with many households responding to persistent affordability challenges by trading down to lower-cost options, according to the latest in a series of “US Remodeler Indexes,” a quarterly gauge of market conditions compiled by Kitchen & Bath Design News’ sister magazine, Qualified Remodeler, in conjunction with real-estate market analyst John Burns Research and Consulting.“High building materials prices and the cost of financing are key impediments to growth,” the USRI found, adding that the remodeling market has largely shifted to wealthier households, which tend to be less interest-rate and cost sensitive. Remodeling projects that accommodate multi-generational living are also becoming increasingly common in response to the escalating cost of homeownership, the report found, noting that despite high costs, remodelers remain bullish about 2025 prospects, with lower interest rates and a reduction in consumer uncertainty fueling their optimism.

Market Analysis

Return to Growth Projected for Residential Remodeling in 2025

After a mild pullback last year, spending for improvements and repairs on owner-occupied homes is set to expand once again by the latter part of 2025, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA), a quarterly market gauge released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.

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Housing Starts & New-Home Sales

The National Association of Home Builders is forecasting “gradual improvements” for the homebuilding sector as the Fed continues to ease monetary policy, and mortgage interest rates trend lower in the months ahead. “With inflation moderating, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin a cycle of monetary policy easing which will produce downward pressure on mortgage interest rates and also lower the interest rates on land development and home construction business loans,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. A recent rise in single-family building permits is further good news for housing, which was hit hard by tight monetary policy in the first half of 2024, the Washington, DC-based NAHB said. According to the latest available numbers, single-family starts were pacing at a 992,000-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 10.4% year-to-date over 2023. “Thanks to lower interest rates, builders now have a positive view for future new home sales for the first time since May 2024,” said NAHB chairman Carl Harris. 

Existing-Home Sales

The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, coupled with increasing inventory, “is a powerful combination” that will provide the environment for existing-home sales to move higher in future months, according to the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. According to Lawrence Yun of the Washington, DC-based NAR, although recent existing-home-sales figures have been “disappointing,” housing inventory is up roughly 23% from a year ago, while unsold inventory sits at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.3 months at the same time a year ago. “The rise in inventory, and the accompanying months’ supply, implies that home buyers are in a much-improved position to find the right home, and at more favorable prices,” Yun said.

Residential Remodeling

Labor shortages continue to be a challenge for home builders, residential remodelers and kitchen/bath designers, with a range of 3 to 6 weeks before key subcontractors can begin work on a project. According to the Q3 2024 Houzz Renovation Barometer, a quarterly gauge of business conditions in the nation’s new construction and remodeling sectors, among the most significant backlogs are those in masonry, cabinetry services and carpentry (see related graph, above).“These wait times highlight the need for careful planning and coordination to ensure timely project completion,” said Marine Sargsyan, staff economist for the Palo Alto, CA-based Houzz.

Cabinet & Vanity Sales

Sales of kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities declined in August compared to the same month a year earlier, the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association reported. According to the KCMA’s latest monthly “Trend of Business Survey,” participating manufacturers reported that overall cabinet and vanity sales were down 1.5% in August, compared to August of 2023. August sales gains were posted for semi-custom cabinets (+00.1%), as well as for custom (+1.2%). In contrast, sales of stock units declined (-9.9%). Despite the monthly gains, however, year-to-date cabinet and vanity sales through August were down 2.4% compared to the same eight-month period in 2023, the KCMA reported.

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Housing Starts & New-Home Sales

With inflation data pointing to pending interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and mortgage rates edging down, buyer interest and builder sentiment should improve in the months ahead, the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders said last month. According to the Washington, DC-based NAHB, high interest rates for construction and development loans, as well as ongoing challenges regarding labor shortages and higher prices for many building materials, continued to slow the building market this summer, with overall housing starts, pegged at 1.24 million units through July, at their lowest pace since May 2020. However, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates, an improving interest-rate environment “will help buyers as well as builders and developers who are contending with tight lending conditions and high interest rates,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. With home inventory at a relatively low supply, builders are also prepared to increase production in the months ahead, Dietz said.

Kitchen & Bath Remodeling

Kitchen and bath spending is expected to decline 2% year over year in 2024, a slight uptick from the 3% decline predicted earlier this year, the National Kitchen & Bath Association reported. According to the NKBA’s mid-year market forecast, annual spending on kitchens and baths will total $175 billion this year, a projection that “indicates the market remains healthy by historical standards,” the NKBA said. According to the forecast, new-construction spending, impacted by a 6% dip in housing starts, is projected to decline 2%, to $108 billion this year. Repair and remodeling spending, impacted by 18 months of inflation-affected household savings, is expected to decline by 2%, to $67 billion, according to the forecast. “High borrowing rates limit home-equity access, and high-income homeowners are cautious, leading to major repair-and-remodeling projects being deferred or dividing into smaller tasks,” the NKBA said.

Major Home Appliance Shipments

Domestic shipments of major home appliances were off slightly through the first half of 2024 compared to the same six-month period in 2023, the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers reported. According to the latest figures released by the Washington, DC-based AHAM, major home appliance shipments totaled 39.7 million units from January through June of this year, down 1.3% from the 40.3 million units shipped in the first six months of 2023. Declines through the first half of 2024 were posted for cooking appliances (-7.4%), kitchen cleanup (-4.5%), refrigeration (-2.4%) home laundry products (-1.0%), AHAM said.

Cabinet & Vanity Sales

Sales of kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, after reversing a lengthy pattern of declines in May, were down again in June, the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association reported. According to the KCMA’s latest monthly “Trend of Business Survey,” participating manufacturers reported that overall cabinet and vanity sales were down 2.2% in June compared to the same month in 2023. Custom cabinet sales fell 0.1% for the month, while semi-custom sales rose 1.1% and stock cabinet sales declined 15%. Year-to-date cabinet and vanity sales through June were down 4.0% compared to the same six-month period in 2023, the KCMA said.

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